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Asian countries upgrade cyber capabilities, says IISS Report

China and several other Asian countries are upgrading their cyber capabilities to rival that of the US, according to a study conducted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The study revealed that China is on pace to be at par with the US in about 10 years. 

IISS, a think tank based in London, developed a qualitative assessment of the cyber capabilities of 15 countries and determined how these capabilities contribute to national power. The study is aimed at helping governments and companies calculate strategic risk and make strategic investment decisions. 

China’s quest to become a global cyber power

Only the US is currently categorized as a Tier One cyber, but China has now been perceived a serious threat to its global dominance. China is at Tier Two along with Australia, Canada, France, Israel, Russia, and the UK. 

The IISS report stated that given China’s current trajectory in this area, the country “would be best placed to join the US in the first tier.” However, the think tank expects the US to remain dominant “for at least the next 10 years” due to its digital-industrial superiority and alliance relations. 

According to the study, China’s first weakness is its lack of the US-style cyber-industrial complex that involves input from the academe, industry, and government. The other weakness it identified is China’s need for improvement in its educational outcomes in cyber sciences, such as cybersecurity. 

The countries covered by the IISS assessment are the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, France, Israel, Japan, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. They were classified into tiers one, two, and three depending on their assessment results. 

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Each country was assessed based on seven categories: 1) strategy and doctrine, 2) governance, command, and control, 3) core cyber-intelligence capability, 4) cyber empowerment and dependence, 5) cybersecurity and resilience, 6) global leadership in cyberspace affairs, and 7) offensive cyber capability. 

IISS mentioned that China made its intention to become a cyber power known when it released its military strategy in 2015 and its first formal cybersecurity strategy in 2016.  

The country wants to become independent in manufacturing core internet technologies and aims to become a global leader by 2030. China has a growing number of tech firms, and its digital economy was valued at $5.1 tn in 2019. 

China’s other recent cyber capabilities initiatives include having 410 satellites in orbit and laying out thousands of kilometers of quantum communications cable, which provides unhackable telecoms in theory. The satellites also included a Beidou network for guiding its missiles. 

Other Asian countries on the rise

Other Asian countries are also actively improving their cyber capabilities. While they fall under tier three cyber powers, these nations are launching initiatives to improve their standing. 

Malaysia is considered a first mover in Asia in terms of cybersecurity. In 2020, it launched new cybersecurity strategies for both national defense and its civil sector. As part of a broader economic development agenda, the Southeast Asian country also prioritized developing its local digital-industrial base. 

The IISS expects Malaysia to become a second-tier cyber power if it realizes its potential in cyber-security policy and the digital economy. 

Meanwhile, Indonesia has been participating in international cyberspace policy dialogues. Compared with other developing nations, the country may be considered more engaged in cybersecurity and implementing digital technologies. 

Indonesia is forecast to become the fourth-largest economy globally by 2030. With this, the country could become a Tier Two cyber power if its government decides to invest more in the cyber domain. 

Vietnam directs its efforts on cybersecurity and advancing its cyber power, particularly in its military. The authoritarian government has been coming up with policies that benefitted its ICT sector and improved its e-government platforms. 

While Vietnam’s offensive cyber capabilities remain weak, it can potentially reach second-tier status if it strengthens cybersecurity skills, supports its ICT sector, and places more investments into advanced technologies protecting its digital infrastructure. 

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